US presidential popular vote margins

PUBLISHED ON NOV 8, 2020

Let's look at the margin of victory of US presidents since 1976. Here we find the vote count for the Democratic and Republican candidate each year, and calculate the percentage difference between the two.

We first pull the U.S. President 1976–2016 dataset from the MIT election lab.

For the 2020 election, let's add in results from the WSJ as of Nov 8 2020. At that time it showed 75.2M votes for Joe Biden and 70.8M votes cast for Donald Trump.

The resulting table shows the raw vote totals as well as the percentage difference (such that the democratic victory are positive in the dem_perc_win column below). Note, this isn't percentage of total votes, but percentage between dems and repub candidates. Also note that raw values mean little because of population growth.

year dem_candidate repub_candidate dem_votes repub_votes dem_perc_win
1976 Carter, Jimmy Ford, Gerald 40680446 38870893 4.45
1980 Carter, Jimmy Reagan, Ronald 35480948 43642639 -23.00
1984 Mondale, Walter Reagan, Ronald 37449813 54166829 -44.64
1988 Dukakis, Michael Bush, George H.W. 41716679 48642640 -16.60
1992 Clinton, Bill Bush, George H.W. 44856747 38798913 13.50
1996 Clinton, Bill Dole, Robert 47295351 39003697 17.53
2000 Gore, Al Bush, George W. 50830580 50311372 1.02
2004 Kerry, John Bush, George W. 58894554 61872711 -5.06
2008 Obama, Barack McCain, John 69338846 59613835 14.03
2012 Obama, Barack Romney, Mitt 65752017 60670117 7.73
2016 Clinton, Hillary Trump, Donald J. 65677168 62692411 4.54
2020 Joe Biden Donald Trump 75215986 70812803 5.85

Overall, it's amazing Ronald Reagan won the popular vote by ~45% in 1984. In terms of the current election, it appears that last Republican president to achieve a larger popular vote victory than Joe Biden was George HW Bush in 1988, 32 years ago.